Glossary

The model's estimate of how likely each outcome is.

The odds implied by the model probability, after removing the bookmaker's vig.

A market price that looks better than the model's fair odds.

The model's estimated long-run return of a price.

Position-sizing formula based on a confirmed edge.

The most likely outcome and the most valuable bet are different.

The timestamp of the model's current view.

Time series of how 1X2 odds moved from open to current.

How many goals 'should have been scored' based on shot quality.

The xG of shots an opponent took against you.

xG divided by total shots — quality of each chance.

xG with penalties stripped out — pure open-play creativity.

How many opponent passes you allow before making a defensive action.

Share of passes in the opponent's half — territorial dominance.

How sure the model is about its top prediction.

The 1-3 player-on-player duels most likely to swing the match.

Each player's chance of starting.

Passes that move the ball at least 10m toward goal.

Goals added/subtracted to one side to make the bet close to 50/50.

Handicap result lands exactly on the handicap — stake returned.

Total match goals above or below a line.

Will both teams score at least one goal?

The basic three-way bet: home / draw / away.

Pick a winner; stake returned on a draw.

How much better your bet odds were vs the closing line.

The bookmaker's profit baked into the prices.

Money flowing in from professional bettors.

Sudden sharp odds drop, usually from coordinated sharp money.